Starting Bankroll – $1,002.61 (Yesterday’s Bets)
The thought that I wouldn’t have to discuss “bad beats” on this journey was wishful thinking. Bringing up this topic on Day #3, though, feels a bit premature.
So, what is a bad beat in sports betting?
By definition, a bad beat is when an unlucky event costs you a win.
Exhibit A:
Last night, I bet on Gleyber Torres to have over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (HRR). It seemed like an easy win. In his first at-bat, he hit what should have been a double off the left-field fence. However, he took his time out of the box and ended up with just a single.
Two batters later, when Anthony Volpe doubled, Torres was thrown out at home plate. Had he been on second base, he likely would have scored. You might think this was the bad beat, but if you’re new to sports betting, you’d be mistaken.
An optimist would note that Torres had at least three more at-bats left in the game and only needed one more HRR to cover the bet, so it still seemed promising.
The actual bad beat happened in the 4th inning when Oswaldo Cabrera replaced Gleyber Torres, as ordered by manager Aaron Boone. The reason? Torres wasn’t hustling out of the batter’s box.
That, my friends, is a bad beat.
Day #2 Recap
- Egypt vs Paraguay
- The day didn’t start well for us as we watched our Over 2.25 bet on the Egypt vs. Paraguay match go into halftime at 0-0.
- Paraguay finally scored in the 71st minute.
- Egypt equalized in the 88th minute, making it 1-1, and with eight minutes of stoppage time, we still had hope for a win.
- However, the match went to extra time and eventually a shootout, where Egypt won to advance to the Olympic Soccer Semifinals.
- Sports betting education: In soccer betting, all bets are graded at the end of 90 minutes. So, while the penalties essentially gave us a 2-1 victory, the score was 1-1 after regulation time.
- The benefit of betting the Asian line at 2.25 is that you’re essentially splitting your bet in two. Half of your bet goes on over 2 goals, and the other half goes on over 2.25 goals. Since there were 2 goals, the first half of the bet was a push, and the second half was a loss, costing us only half the bet amount.
- Blue Jays vs Yankees
- See bad beat rant at top of page.
- Phillies vs Mariners
- As tough as the Gleyber Torres bad beat was, there’s another side to sports betting: the “easy winners,” and that’s exactly what we got in this game.
- We bet Over 8 runs, and the Mariners delivered quickly. In just the first 1.2 innings, they tagged Tyler Phillips for 8 runs, sending him to the showers.
- A few innings later, with the bases loaded, Josh Rojas grounded into a force out, giving the Mariners a 9-0 lead and cashing our bet in the 4th inning.
- The Mariners went on to win the game 10-2 against the second-best team in MLB.
- Day #2 Profit/Loss: -$6.31
What I Learned:
- Soccer Betting: The style of play in the knockout rounds of a soccer tournament is vastly different from the group stage. For the first 35 minutes, Egypt and Paraguay both played cautiously, not wanting to take any risks for fear of losing the match. For middle-of-the-road teams like these, it might be better to consider betting the Under in such situations.
- Bad Beats: Bad beats are unavoidable. There’s no reason to dwell on Aaron Boone’s decision; doing so will only lead to poor choices. Accept it as a bad beat and move on—it’s a story to tell, but not to carry with you. Unfortunately, I doubt it will be my last.
- Mariners: The Mariners remind me of my Cleveland Guardians: a scrappy team that wasn’t expected to compete in the AL West at the beginning of the season. They continue to fight each night, backed by MLB’s second-best pitching staff with a 3.45 ERA. This is not a team I want to bet against or face in the postseason.
$200-$200K Challenge:
I am finalizing this late today and will have this posted for everyone by end of day tomorrow.
Day #3 Bets:
#1) Women’s Olympic Soccer Bet – Spain vs Columbia Over 3.5 (-115)
#2) MLB Bet – Jurickson Profar Over 1.5 HRR (-120)
#3) MLB Bet – J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 HRR (-105)
Parlay Bet of the Day: 2+ RBI Milestones
William Contreras (+400) | Jose Miranda (+550) | Teoscar Hernandez (+475)
Looking forward to enjoying a Saturday at Cedar Point with my wife and daughter! Hopefully we have no bad beats today!
