Ravens vs Chiefs: Top 5 HUGE Storylines to Watch

The 2024 NFL season will open up tonight with the back-to-back reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the AFC North Baltimore Ravens. The Chiefs look to become the first NFL to three peat since the 1968 Green Bay Packers. The Ravens on the other hand lead by QB Lamar Jackson are hoping to figure out a way to beat the Chiefs as they lost in the 2023 AFC Championship Game to them and have now lost four of the last five meetings since 2018.

Here are five things to watch for in the Ravens vs Chiefs matchup tonight on Thursday Night Football:

1. Lamar Jackson Run & Pass vs Chiefs Defense:
   • Lamar Jackson has faced his share of challenges against the Chiefs throughout his career. The Ravens are just 1-4 with Jackson under center against Kansas City, including a disappointing playoff loss last season. While Jackson has found some success on the ground against the Chiefs — averaging 6.49 yards per rush — he’s struggled more through the air, with an average of just 6.47 yards per pass attempt. It’s surprising that the Ravens didn’t utilize Jackson more as a designed runner in their last meeting, and we could see a different approach this Thursday night.
   • In their playoff clash, the Chiefs’ defense often employed a single-high safety look, which Jackson struggled to exploit. According to Next Gen Stats, he completed just 5 of 15 passes against that coverage, despite ranking second in the league in yards per attempt (8.8) against single-high defenses during the regular season. Against other defensive schemes, he averaged 9.0 yards per attempt in that game.
   • This offseason, Kansas City traded cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who had mixed results in coverage against Baltimore but made a critical fumble recovery near the goal line. With Trent McDuffie stepping up as the new CB1, the second cornerback spot remains uncertain, with Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams as the top contenders.
   • It will be intriguing to see if Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo adjusts his coverage strategy this time around. Meanwhile, Jackson’s arsenal of targets — including Zay Flowers, Nelson Agholor, and Rashod Bateman on the outside — is bolstered by the return of tight end Mark Andrews, who was limited in the AFC Championship, alongside the promising Isaiah Likely.
2. Continued Success from Mahomes vs Ravens:
   • Patrick Mahomes has consistently found success against the Ravens, boasting a 72.8% completion rate and averaging 344 passing yards per game over their five meetings, with an impressive 13-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In their last encounter, the Ravens forced Mahomes into a series of short throws, but he responded by completing 30 of 39 passes without a turnover, and only took two sacks late in the game when the Chiefs were already leading by two scores.
   • That defensive strategy was crafted by Mike Macdonald, who has since left for the Seahawks’ head coaching position.
   • Now, all eyes are on his successor, 32-year-old Zach Orr, who will face the challenge of containing Mahomes. Orr is quickly gaining the trust of his players, and he inherits a defense that led the NFL with 60 sacks last season.
   • Despite some offseason departures, the Ravens still have a strong pass-rush unit, with hopes that younger players like Odafe Oweh, who tallied five sacks last year, can step up their game.
   • Baltimore’s defense also features a deep and talented secondary, anchored by Kyle Hamilton, whose versatility allows him to excel in nearly any coverage role. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ offense struggled at times last season with turnovers, stalled drives, and dropped passes, especially on deep attempts.
   • This game serves as an early test and a crucial opportunity for Kansas City to reestablish its big-play potential and show that its offensive firepower is back on track.
3. Derrick Henry’s Impact:
   • Derrick Henry, the NFL’s active rushing leader, begins a new chapter with the Ravens after an illustrious eight-season run in Tennessee. Last season, Henry averaged 68.6 rushing yards per game — his lowest since 2018 when he was still sharing carries in Tennessee. At 30 years old and with over 2,000 career carries, some may wonder if Henry is starting to slow down.
   • He had seven games in 2023 with 43 or fewer rushing yards, raising questions about his durability. However, Henry ended last season strong, averaging 5.7 yards per carry over the final three games, capped off with a 153-yard performance against the Jaguars in Week 18.
   • Henry has a history of success against the Chiefs, amassing 672 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in six career matchups, including the postseason. He has even thrown for three of his five career touchdown passes against Kansas City and has never fumbled in 128 touches against them.
   • While the Ravens’ offensive line faces uncertainty with two first-year starters, the hope is that the combination of Henry and Lamar Jackson can create a potent ground attack that compensates for any lack of cohesion upfront.
   • A strong running game could also enhance Baltimore’s play-action passing, where Jackson has thrived. Last season, Jackson led all quarterbacks in Expected Points Added (EPA) and success rate on play-action dropbacks, averaging 10.6 yards per attempt compared to 7.1 on non-play-action plays.
   • In the AFC Championship Game, he averaged 11.2 yards per attempt on play-action versus 5.7 without it. The Chiefs struggled against play-action last year, ranking 31st in defensive success rate, which could give the Ravens a significant advantage if they establish the run early and often.
4. Chiefs Rookies:
   • It’s almost ironic to think the Chiefs needed an offensive makeover after winning the Super Bowl, but their first two draft picks suggest that’s exactly what they aimed for. Despite their championship run, Kansas City’s passing attack lacked the downfield explosiveness that has defined the Mahomes era.
   • The primary issue was a receiving corps that struggled to create separation and haul in deep passes. From 2018 to 2021, Mahomes threw 44 touchdown passes of 40 or more yards — the second-most in the NFL during that period — but has managed just two since 2022.
   • Enter Xavier Worthy, the Chiefs’ first-round pick, who ran a blazing 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine. With Marquise Brown sidelined due to a shoulder injury, the Chiefs are counting on Worthy to provide a spark, especially in the opener. It only took one 37-yard preseason connection from Mahomes to Worthy — even with the rookie stumbling after the catch — to get Chiefs fans excited about his potential impact.
   • While Travis Kelce remains Mahomes’ trusted target, as evidenced by his 11-catch, 116-yard performance against the Ravens in January, Worthy’s speed adds a new dimension to Kansas City’s offense.
   • Rashee Rice, who ended his rookie season on a high note, is also expected to play a significant role. However, Worthy’s ability to turn short passes into big gains makes him a focal point in this game. For the Chiefs’ deep passing game to truly thrive, they’ll need strong protection for Mahomes.
   • That’s where Kingsley Suamataia, their second-round pick, comes in. Suamataia, who won the left tackle job in training camp, is known for his quick feet and savvy pass-blocking skills, but he will face a tough test against Baltimore.
   • The Ravens are likely to throw everything they can at the rookie in his debut, using overload blitzes, stunts, and various defensive line schemes to keep him guessing. With a relentless pass rush, Baltimore will aim to make Suamataia’s first NFL start a challenging one.
5. Jackson & Mahomes Favorite Targets:
   • Both Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are heading into this season with intriguing questions about who will emerge as their go-to targets. For Jackson, the focus is on developing chemistry with a new and dynamic set of receivers. Zay Flowers, Nelson Agholor, and Rashod Bateman offer a blend of speed, route-running precision, and big-play potential that could elevate Baltimore’s passing game.
   • Tight end Mark Andrews, who remains Jackson’s most reliable weapon, returns healthy and ready to regain his dominant form, while Isaiah Likely’s growth adds another versatile option. If Jackson can establish trust with these targets, particularly Flowers, who has shown flashes of brilliance in camp, the Ravens’ offense could become much more unpredictable and difficult to defend.
   • On the other side, Mahomes is adapting to a slightly revamped receiving corps as well. Travis Kelce remains the anchor of the Chiefs’ passing attack, consistently delivering in crucial moments, but Kansas City is counting on rookie Xavier Worthy to stretch the field and bring back the deep threat they’ve missed in recent seasons.
   • Worthy’s speed can change the complexion of the Chiefs’ offense, providing Mahomes with a home-run hitter who can turn any play into a touchdown. Additionally, Rashee Rice is expected to build on a promising finish to his rookie year, potentially developing into a reliable target in the intermediate passing game. With Marquise Brown out, Mahomes will be keen to see who steps up and establishes themselves as a dependable option alongside Kelce.
   • As both quarterbacks aim to maximize the strengths of their receiving units, the battle between Jackson and Mahomes may come down to which quarterback can more quickly build trust and rhythm with their new-look offense.
   • Will Jackson’s new arsenal help him diversify the Ravens’ attack, or will Mahomes’ potential deep connections with Worthy restore the Chiefs’ trademark explosiveness? This season will be a compelling test for both signal-callers as they look to solidify who their top targets will be.

As the Ravens vs Chiefs take place tonight to kickoff the 2024 NFL season all eyes will be on how Jackson and Mahomes navigate their new offensive landscapes. Both quarterbacks have the talent and leadership to elevate those around them, but the success of their teams may hinge on who can quickly establish chemistry with their new targets and exploit the other’s defensive vulnerabilities.

Whether it’s Jackson rediscovering his play-action magic with a revamped receiving corps or Mahomes reestablishing the Chiefs’ deep-ball threat with a new cast of weapons, this game promises to set the tone for the season ahead. With so much on the line, the stage is set for another unforgettable showdown between two of the NFL’s most electrifying playmakers.

Day #35 of Sports Betting

Today’s Starting Bankroll: $1,886.96

Bet Size: $18.86

Yesterday was probably the worst day I have had in the last week so I am not going to overreact going 0-3, especially since I sort of eluded to the idea that September MLB bets are going to go away. The good news is that the NFL starts today and we have a full 5 straight days of American football.

Yesterday’s Bets 👇

$200 ➡️ $200K Challenge Bet: Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 HRR

• I wish every challenge bet was this easy. Marsh doubled in his first at-bat and ended up 3-3 with four total bases and a run. Let’s see if I can’t get something started off this in the challenge series.

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Over 8.5

• If you are looking for the bad beat of the day, look no further. The Braves scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 1st, the Rockies came back with 2 runs in the top of the second inning. So heading into the bottom of the 2nd there were 6 runs scored. Only 1 runs was scored the rest of the game. Ouch.

Willy Adames Over 1.5 HRR

• He went 0-3 with a walk and honestly as you will see in my “What Did I Learn” section today he was dropped to the 5th hole not where I though he would be.

Giancarlo Stanton Over 1.5 HRR

• Did I mention how much I hate betting the Yankees lineup. I think it is a combination of too many great hitter and also strikeout hitter. The latter is what Stanton decided to do yesterday where he went 0-5 with 3 K’s.

Parlay of the Day: 2+ RBI’s

• Bryce Harper: 0-0, Left Game after HBP
• Adley Rutschman: 1-3, 0 RBI’s
• Alex Bregman: 1-2, 0 RBI’s

Day #35 Profit/Loss: – $58.29

What I Learned:

Lineup Changes Can Kill Your Bet: Willy Adames has been constantly hitting around the 2nd or 3rd spot in the lineup for most of the season for the Brewers. Yesterday for whatever reason he was dropped down to the 5th spot which does not protect him as a hitter at all. It’s interesting though as a bettor for the MLB on knowing when to pull the trigger on bets. I a lot of times see value in the lines before the lineups are even announced. So do you take value over information? Thinks I need to learn.

Day #36 Best Bets

Level 1.2 ($4 ➡️ $8): Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 HRR (+100)

#1) MLB: Royce Lewis Over 1.5 HRR (-115)

#2) NFL: Ravens +3 (-110)

#3) NFL: Isiah Pacheco Over 60+ Rushing Yards (-110)

Parlay of the Day: 2+ RBI Milestone (+31775)

• Yainer Diaz
• Ryan Jeffers
• Luke Raley